By Mandy TaheriShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberDemocratic Texas state Representative Gina Hinojosa won the party’s nomination on Tuesday, setting up the general election race against Republican Governor Greg Abbott.
Here’s what recent polling shows about the matchup.
Why It Matters
Abbott, a strong conservative and staunch ally of President Donald Trump, was first elected to the state's top office in 2014 and was reelected in 2018 and 2022. If Abbott wins, he will become the state's longest-serving governor by the end of his fourth term.
Hinojosa, a lawyer, was sworn into the Texas House of Representatives in 2017. The Lone Star State has not elected a Democrat to a statewide office in over 30 years.
What To Know
On Tuesday evening, Hinojosa secured the Democratic nomination with 60.5 percent of the vote. Hinojosa had long been polling ahead of other Democratic challengers, including former U.S. Representative Chris Bell and Angela Villescaz.
Polls in Texas were open for 12 hours, closing at 7 p.m. local time. However, confusion surrounding precinct locations prompted a judge to extend voting hours to 9 p.m. in certain areas.
...Most polling before the primary has shown Abbott leading Hinojosa by several points in what were then potential matchups.
Public polls from the University of Houston and Emerson College consistently put Abbott ahead by 7 to 8 points, while Hinojosa’s campaign released an internal poll suggesting a much tighter race.
An internal poll commissioned by Hinojosa’s campaign and conducted by Democratic firm GBAO Strategies between January 26 through February 3 among 1,000 likely voters, showed Abbott with 46 percent and Hinojosa with 43 percent, followed by Libertarian Pat Dixon at 6 percent. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
A recent University of Houston survey that showed Abbott leading by 7 points, 49 percent to 42 percent. That survey among 1,502 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.53 percentage points.
In that poll, 49 percent of respondents said they supported Abbott’s reelection, while 42 percent backed Hinojosa, 3 percent supported Dixon and 6 percent were undecided. Hinojosa led among women, Black voters, college-educated voters and Gen Z voters. Abbott held stronger support among men, white and Latino voters, older voters and those with a high school education.
...An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey conducted between January 10 and 12 found Abbott leading the gubernatorial race.
Among the 1,165 registered Texas voters, Abbott held an 8-point lead over Hinojosa, 50 percent to 42 percent. About 8 percent of voters were undecided.
Prediction markets have shown a slight increase in the odds that a Democrat could win the governor’s race over the past week, though the likelihood remains low. On March 1, Polymarket bettors placed an 18 percent chance that a Democrat would win, and 81 percent change that a Republican would. As of midday Tuesday, bettors signaled an 18 percent chance for a Democrat victory and 80 percent Republican.
Kalshi traders showed a similar view, with midday Tuesday pricing giving Republicans about an 85 percent chance of winning the governor’s race and Democrats about 17 percent.
What Happens Next
The general election will be held on November 3.
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