Stat was way closer than it should have been

The Denver Broncos won another one-score game by the slimmest of margins. The team is now 7-2 in one-score games this season after going 1-6 last season. That means that over the last 28 regular season games, the Broncos have had 16 games that ended with a of winning or losing by eight or fewer points. That also tells us that the Broncos have figured out how to win those close games. The Broncos have the luck/skill combo that followed around the Chiefs last season. The Chiefs were 11-0 in one score games last season, en route to a 15-2 regular season finish. Those who are comparing the 2025 Broncos to the 2024 Chiefs, miss that fact that KC didn’t lose any of their one-score games last year. The 2025 Chiefs are currently 1-6 in one score, which is the same record that the 2024 Broncos had in one score games. The 2024 Broncos finished with only one regular season loss that wasn’t a one score game last season (loss to the Ravens). It would not surprise me if the Chiefs continue to lose close games in the final five weeks of the regular season.

This is the 23rd time in Bronco team history that the team has gotten ten or more wins in a season. In 20 of the 22 previous seasons, the team has made the playoffs. The two seasons where the team missed the playoffs were the 1981 season when the team finished 10-6 and lost the wildcard tie-breaker to the 10-6 Bills. The other season was the 1985 when the 11-5 Broncos lost the tie-breaker to the 11-5 Jets and Patriots. The Patriots would make the Super Bowl and get thoroughly embarrassed by the Bears.

The current Broncos could finish anywhere from 10-7 to 15-2. Go vote in my poll to weigh in on where you think that they will finish the regular season. I think they will finish 13-4.

The lack of an effective run game will hurt as we hit the coldest month of the regular season. JK Dobbins was able to run through arm-tackles that RJ Harvey (who is 205, not the 220 that Chris Collinsworth was mistakenly saying Sunday night) and Jaleel McLaughlin can’t. I saw both backs going down at first contact last night, which was something that neither Commander running back seemed to do last night.

Since Dobbins has been out the Broncos have run the ball 20 times for 60 yards against Chiefs (removing the kneeldown) and then 23 times for 83 yards against the Commanders. That’s 43 carries for 143 yards or 3.3 yards per carry which would be worst in the league over the entire season. The current worst rushing team in the NFL is the Faiders who are averaging 3.4. So we need some help running the ball. That does not have to be a big back, but it would be nice to have one who doesn’t go down on first contact. Harvey could do that in college, but he has yet to show that in the NFL. According to PFR, Harvey has zero broken tackles in the run game (two as a receiver). Dobbins had 9 for the season, but none of the other Bronco RBs have one. The Broncos have 11 total in the run game on the season and the other two are from Marvin Mims and Troy Franklin.

According to PFR, only the Lions and Chiefs (10 and 9) have fewer broken tackles in the run game than the Broncos. The Browns and Seahawks are tied for the league lead at 28. Pookie Williams has 21 for the Cowboys this season. That’s tied for the individual lead among runners with Jonathan Taylor. Dobbins was also getting 2.4 yards after contact per carry before he was injured, which was one the best in the league. Taylor is best in the league with 2.8. Harvey is currently getting 1.7 and McLaughlin is getting 0.7. Adam Prentice is good for the occasional short yardage carry, but I doubt he figures much into the offensive gameplan as a ballcarrier in the final five games. He has five carries on the season and only 14 for his career.

The Bronco defense now has 51 sacks through 12 games or 4.25 per game, which is still on pace to tie the 84 Bears who have the record with 72. Of course the Broncos would be doing it in 17 games instead of 16.

If the Broncos did not get another sack this season, they would still be the 6th best sack total in team history. They will reset the franchise record that they set last season with 13 more sacks in the final five games. One of the Bronco opponents in the final five games, the Chargers, has been the worst team in the league at allowing pressure. The Jags are 8th best at pass protection (the Commanders are 3rd behind the Broncos), the Packers are 11th, the Thiefs are 20th and the Faiders are 21st. There should be ample chance for the Broncos to get 13 more sacks in the final five games, but I’m worried that they will fall short of the 72 sack record.

Bo Nix has now started 28 regular season games. For a QB in the first 28 games of his career he has not been extraordinary in any facet except avoiding sacks. His sack % is on the best in history over his first 28 starts. He is 10th best and up with some HoF QBs – Marino, Manning, and Namath. I was surprised to see Steve DeBerg on the list, but not surprised to see Drew Lock on there.