Revisiting the 2025 Colorado Rockies’ on-base percentage

Since the Rockies announced they had hired Paul DePodesta to be their president of baseball operations, a recurring question I’ve had is how much a book published in 2004 tells us about his approach to the game today. So let’s start by acknowledging that 2004 was a long time ago; that baseball has changed a lot since then; and that DePodesta has done his share of changing, too.

But one of the things that always stayed with me in Michael Lewis’ “Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game” was his thinking about the value of on-base percentage:

When [DePodesta] was finished, he had a model for predicting run production that was more accurate than any he knew of. In his model an extra point of on-base percentage was worth three times an extra point of slugging percentage.”

If allowed to ask DePodesta a question about OBP during his recent media scrums, I would have asked him to describe how his understanding of the metric has evolved. But since I wasn’t in a position to do that, I thought we might game it out a bit here.

Let’s start with a quick definition refresher. According to MLB.com,

OBP refers to how frequently a batter reaches base per plate appearance. Times on base include hits, walks and hit-by-pitches, but do not include errors, times reached on a fielder’s choice or a dropped third strike. (Separately, sacrifice bunts are removed from the equation entirely, because it is rarely a hitter’s decision to sacrifice himself, but rather a manager’s choice as part of an in-game strategy.)

In 2025, per Baseball Reference, the average MLB OBP score was .315.

The Toronto Blue Jays had the highest OBP (.333) closely followed by the Milwaukee Brewers and the New York Yankees (.332)

Compare these numbers, then, to those of the Colorado Rockies.

First, as a team, they had a OBP of .293, the lowest in MLB. Given their tendency to strike out (25.9 K%) and an inability to take walks (6.7% BB%), that poor showing would make sense.

Now consider individual players. This list from Baseball Reference includes only players who remain on the 40-man roster:

Only three Rockies had above-average OBP: Tyler Freeman, Hunter Goodman, and Jordan Beck.

Freeman’s solid offense and ability to get on base tended to get lost in the miserable numbers of his defense as he learned to play right field. (See Joelle Milholm’s analysis here.) However, his .354 OBP is well above MLB average. Also worth noting are his home-road OBP splits. At Coors Field, he had a .370 OBP; on the road that number dropped to .337. Both numbers are well above league-average.

Because of an oblique injury, Freeman did not have enough innings to be considered qualified by the end of the season. But if he did, his OBP is high enough to rank him among MLB’s top 30 players. That’s how good he was.

That Goodman and Beck had above-average OBP scores came as a surprise for me. The tendency has been to focus on Goodman’s power numbers, but he was, overall, just plain effective at getting on base.

The rest of the Rockies were below average in terms of OBP, though Kyle Karros and Mickey Moniak were close.

Note, too, Brenton Doyle’s .274 OBP, which is among the lower scores of Rockies who received regular playing time. Granted, 2025 was not Doyle’s best season, but his career OBP is .284, still well below league average.

As we try to divine Paul DePodesta’s philosophy while he begins rebuilding the Rockies, it’s worth considering what we know, and one thing we know is that a younger Paul DePodesta discovered that OBP was more valuable than SLG. A good question, then, is how he will value OBP at Coors Field.

If he still sees OBP as especially valuable, Tyler Freeman should be an interesting player to him. (And perhaps an early indicator is MLB Trade Rumors’ inaccurate prediction that Tyler Freeman would be a non-tender candidate. When the deadline passed, Freeman remained on the Rockies’ roster.)

We’re also seeing the beginnings of rumors that Brenton Doyle may be a trade candidate given the Rockies’ smorgasboard of outfielders. His low OBP may be an indicator that DePodesta will look to other answers in the outfield.

And there’s this: Consider the salaries Freeman and Doyle are predicted to make in 2026, again per MLB Trade Rumors:

• Tyler Freeman (3.046): $1.8 million

• Brenton Doyle (2.161): $3.2 million

Clearly, Doyle is the better defender. Defensive metrics, two Gold Gloves, and a highlight reel of SportsCenter defensive gems don’t lie.

Here’s the question, then, that the new PBO must answer: Is the better move paying less money for Tyler Freeman’s higher OBP and worse defense or more for Brenton Doyle’s elite defense but less-reliable bat?

DePodesta’s answer will give a sense of how far he’s gone from his “Moneyball” roots. Let us know your thoughts in the comments!

In case you’re interested, Walker Monfort will be talking with DNVR today at 12:45pm.

3 best Phillies catcher alternatives if J.T. Realmuto bolts in free agency | TBOH

Why, yes, there is speculation about Hunter Goodman. “Undoubtedly,” Matt Davis writes, “the Rockies would ask for one or two top prospects in a trade. It might work for the Phillies if they want to get a cheaper option behind the plate, with their payroll expected to be among the highest again next season.”

Authenticity, Collaboration, Respect: The Story Behind the Spokane Indians | SportsLogos.net

Paul Caputo describes the Rockies’ High-A affiliate’s relationship with the Spokane Tribe. “Today’s relationship with the tribe is excellent, and has been for a number of years,” said Otto Klein, the team’s senior vice president.

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!