If free agents simply signed where they grew up

The Cincinnati Reds need to hit more dingers, and there’s a hulking dinger-honker in free agency who grew up just down the road from Cincinnati in Middletown. So, when you head to Google, type in ‘Kyle Schwarber Middletown Reds,’ and scroll past the dozens of AI suggested answers and sponsored posts, you’ll come across dozens upon dozens of articles suggesting how good of a fit the two would be in free agency this winter.

After all, Kyle wants to win, is fresh off a stint with a Philadelphia club trying to win, and the Reds – as currently constructed – are trying to win in 2026, too. Of course, there are dozens of teams who a) are ‘trying to win’ and b) could use a guy who can mash in the middle of their lineup.

It’s fascinating, and not without at least a little merit. Long ago, Ken Griffey, Jr. effectively strongarmed the Seattle Mariners into dealing him to Cincinnati (and only Cincinnati) prior to reaching free agency because he wanted to head back to where he grew up. The Reds have also made a habit of drafting, signing, and trading for other guys from (or with notable affinity for) Reds Country over the years – Brent Suter, Austin Kearns, Sonny Gray, etc. – so it shouldn’t come completely out of left field on the Reds business method side of things.

Still, Schwarber is not yet 33, just socked 56 dingers en route to a 2nd place finish in MVP voting, and is going to command a nine-figure contract this winter. The Reds don’t do nine-figure contracts in free agency, and the only ones they’ve ever done as extensions – Griffey, Joey Votto, Homer Bailey – caused them to immediately bitch about how little money they had left for anything else.

There’s a clear fit in a world where, yes, Kyle is from Middletown and the Reds have money. There is not a clear fit, though, because in this world Kyle is from Middletown and the Reds cry poor at every sniff of a microphone.

I thought it a fun exercise to go through some of the top US-born free agents in this year’s class and assign them to teams based purely on where they grew up.

Kyle Tucker, Pete Alonso – Tampa Bay Rays

Kyle Tucker is a product of H.B. Plant High School in Tampa itself, a school that’s produced an alarmingly good amount of big leaguers including fellow free agent Pete Alonso, Hall of Famer Wade Boggs, top prospect turned rookie Jac Caglianone, former Reds Mychal Givens and Preston Tucker, as well as Jake Woodford, who you may remember from the picture below.

You haven’t read a sniff about Alonso to the Rays anywhere, and there are only one or two even slight mentions of Tucker to the Rays, however.

Bo Bichette – Tampa Bay Rays

Bo grew up in nearby St. Petersburg after being born in Orlando. He’s almost certainly returning to Toronto, however, and not even a wide-ranging post of suggestions from MLB.com lists the Rays as a contender.

Dylan Cease – Atlanta Braves

The Braves have big money and haven’t shied away from throwing it at pitchers before, yet Cease just signed with the Toronto Blue Jays. Imagine!

Alex Bregman – Colorado Rockies

Bregman’s from Albuquerque, but out here in the Mountain West that’s considered ‘close’ to Denver. Alex Bregman isn’t going to sign with the Colorado Rockies, nor should anyone, really – unless you have a bad back and they offer you $180 million while having zero other interest in actually filling out a roster.

Cody Bellinger – Arizona Diamondbacks

A product of Scottsdale’s Hamilton High School, Bellinger keeps being linked to the likes of the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers. Sorry, Arizona!

Devin Williams – St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals are rebuilding, and that’s surely a large reason why we’ve not heard any connection between Williams and his hometown St. Louis club. Predictions and rumors about him are all over the place – as is typical with elite relievers – with even the Reds in the mix. Still, no real push from national pundits about this one.

JT Realmuto – Texas Rangers

JT grew up in suburban Oklahoma City, just a couple hours north of the Dallas Metroplex. The Rangers just non-tendered veteran catcher Jonah Heim and have just Kyle Higashioka behind the plate and Joc Pederson at DH off an absolutely brutal 2025 season. Still, it seems to be a chorus of Phillies, with the Rangers desire to upgrade behind the dish detailed at MLB Trade Rumors last week, where he grew up didn’t even get a mention.

Nick Martinez – Miami Marlins

Nick is Miami through and through, yet a quick Google search for “Nick Martinez Miami Marlins rumors” does nothing but bring up stories of him getting hit hard last July in what became Miami’s 11th consecutive road victory. Huh.

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The main story here, I think, is that if you were born in a baseball hotbed like southern California, Florida, or Texas, the idea of ‘playing for your hometown team’ gets lost in the mire on the national stage. But if you came from somewhere else in the states, it seems like the idea of repping your hometown club somehow takes on significantly more value to the national scribes.

Cincinnati isn’t alone in that, either. The Atlanta Braves, for instance, have built their offense around Atlanta native Matt Olson and DeKalb product Michael Harris II, and that’s after they sought out Atlanta area native Dansby Swanson to anchor their infield for seven years. Braves legend Brian McCann? Georgia native. Jeff Francoeur? From Atlanta. They used their 1st round pick in 2023 on Cairo, GA native Hurston Waldrep. You get the point.

It’s a fascinating thought exercise, though it does really come down to this – almost universally, players who are reaching free agency want to sign for what they’re worth, want a chance to win a title, and want to be comfortable where they play. That seems pretty obvious. If it just so happens that a player’s ‘hometown’ team can provide each of those options with a roster spot unblocked and available, well, it’s hard not to make the connection.

It remains to be seen if the Reds and Schwarber see eye to eye on any of those three categories, however, and it’s impossible to gauge which one is of greatest priority to either side. I suppose there’s enough of an on-paper connection beyond just ‘he’s from Ohio’ to make it something to aim for in a pie/sky scenario, but it’s truly hard to see the Reds being able to outspend the other clubs who will surely be in the running for his signature.