Can Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss make CFP with Egg Bowl loss? Best, worst scenarios

OXFORD — A win in the Egg Bowl game for Ole Miss football over Mississippi State will save the Rebels from a stressful final College Football Playoff selection show on Dec. 7.

With a win, No. 6 Ole Miss (10-1, 6-1 SEC) would secure its spot in the CFP. It would be the first playoff appearance in Ole Miss history and — with Lane Kiffin job rumors looming over the team— an impressive feat.

An upset loss to the Bulldogs (5-6, 1-6) on Nov. 28 (11 a.m., ABC) would complicate things. Ole Miss would be sent back to the CFP bubble with its postseason fate relying on other games and the CFP selection committee. The Rebels were on the wrong side of the bubble in 2024. So can the Rebels survive a second loss?

ESPN's Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Ole Miss a 41% chance to make the CFP with a loss at MSU. A win in the Egg Bowl, by contrast, elevates Ole Miss' CFP odds to greater than 99%.

The Rebels dropped to No. 7 in the latest rankings from No. 6 and would host Alabama if the playoffs started today.

Would Lane Kiffin leaving for LSU, Florida hurt Ole Miss in CFP rankings?

Regardless of what happens in the Egg Bowl, Kiffin leaving for either LSU or Florida after the game could dent the Rebels' CFP ranking. Ole Miss AD Keith Carter put out a statement that a decision on Kiffin's future is expected to be announced Nov. 29.

CFP selection committee chair Hunter Yurachek said Nov. 25 that Kiffin leaving would be considered in the final rankings.

“We’ll take care of that when it happens,” Yurachek said. “We don’t look ahead. The loss of a player, the loss of a key coach is in the principles of how we rank the teams. But again, we don’t have a data point for Ole Miss without their head coach.”

If Ole Miss wins, perhaps Kiffin's departure is enough to bump the Rebels down to the No. 9 seed. That would put Ole Miss on the road for the first round instead of getting a CFP game in Oxford.

If the Rebels lose the Egg Bowl, Kiffin leaving could send the Rebels spiraling out of the CFP picture. The narrative would be completely negative in that worst-case scenario. Picking up the worst loss of the season in the final week is not the last look the Rebels want to give the CFP committee.

Ole Miss football CFP rooting guide for Week 14

Losses from teams jumbled around Ole Miss would help clear some buffer room in the CFP rankings. Here's a quick guide of results on Nov. 28 and Nov. 29 that would help Ole Miss rise in the CFP rankings.

• No. 23 Georgia Tech over No. 4 Georgia

• West Virginia over No. 5 Texas Tech

• Washington over No. 6 Oregon

• LSU over No. 8 Oklahoma

• Stanford over No. 9 Notre Dame

• Auburn over No. 10 Alabama

• UCF over No. 11 BYU

• Pittsburgh over No. 12 Miami (FL)

• No. 19 Tennessee over No. 14 Vanderbilt

• No. 1 Ohio State over No. 15 Michigan

Why Ole Miss football is rooting against CFP 'bid stealers'

The 12-team playoff doesn't necessarily mean the 12 highest-ranked teams will make the CFP.

The five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed to make the field, followed by the next seven highest-ranked teams. Three conference champions — SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 — are likely to finish in the top 12 anyway.

Bid stealing occurs when teams that would otherwise miss the field secure an automatic bid by winning in a conference championship game, and that victory does not knock out the team it beat from the bracket.

No. 12 Miami is the current highest-ranked ACC team, but the Hurricanes aren't likely to made the ACC Championship Game. No. 18 Virginia and No. 21 SMU have the clearest path to the championship game, needing a win to get in. If the Hurricanes can stay in the field and another ACC team clinches the automatic bid, there will be one less spot.

The highest-ranked Group of Five team is No. 24 Tulane (American). If Tulane finishes below the bottom 12 in the final rankings, another top-12 team will need to be booted from the bracket.

The Big 12 is another conference where it could happen. If No. 5 Texas Tech loses the Big 12 championship game but doesn't fall out of the bracket, a second Big 12 team will make the field.

Ole Miss should root for the highest-ranked team in conference championship games to thwart prospective bid stealers.

How can Ole Miss make the SEC Championship Game?

There's an outside shot Ole Miss makes the first SEC Championship Game in school history.

It requires winning the Egg Bowl, as well No. 16 Texas beating No. 3 Texas A&M and Auburn beating No. 10 Alabama.

The tiebreaker process would result in Ole Miss facing Georgia if that scenario plays out.

Sam Hutchens covers Ole Miss for the Clarion Ledger. Email him at [email protected] or reach him on X at @Sam_Hutchens_

This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss in CFP with Egg Bowl loss? See projections