Time to learn if the Packers can run the ball against a good defense

In a post-Tucker Kraft world and with Jordan Love playing through a left shoulder injury, the Green Bay Packers offense has leaned into heavy personnel and running the football. The plan was good enough against the New York Giants, who struggle to stop the run, and the Minnesota Vikings, a blitz-crazy defense, over the last two weeks. But Thursday's trip to Detroit to play the Lions will put the Packers run game to the test.

The Lions come into Week 13 ranking sixth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per carry, third in PFF's run defense grade and fifth in EPA/allowed per rush attempt.

An answer will soon arrive: Can the Packers run the ball successfully against a good run defense?

The Packers' most productive games running the ball have come against the Dallas Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals, Washington Commanders and Giants, all defenses in the bottom third of run defense by EPA/play. Sunday's 146-yard rushing performance against the Vikings (17th in rush EPA/play) was arguably the most impressive of the season, especially considering Josh Jacobs did not play. But the Packers also ran 42 times and got ultra conversative with a lead in the second half against a defensive coordinator that blitzed Love on 20 of 24 dropbacks. It's tough to know what to make of the run game given the fact it played a historically bad run defense in New York without Jacobs for the better part of three quarters and then made big changes on Sunday (more jumbo personnel, Anthony Belton rotating at right guard) in a painfully obvious run-heavy plan against the Vikings.

The Packers' least productive run game this season, at least by yards gained? Week 1 against the Lions. The Packers rushed 25 times for only 78 yards. It didn't matter then, but it could in the rematch. The loss of Kraft, a do-everything tight end who could block inline, stretch the seams and dominate after the catch, created a seismic change within the Packers offense.

It will be interesting to see how the Lions defense, which ranks among the league leaders in heavy box rate, tries to defend the Packers on Thursday. Will defensive coordinator Kelvin Joseph stay heavy to contain the run game and put the game on Love's shoulders, knowing he's playing through a painful injury to his left shoulder and there are injuries at receiver? Or will the Lions fall back into what has worked against the Packers without Kraft -- the two deep shell coverages that dare the Packers to lean on an inefficient run game and become more predictable based on personnel?

Also, we don't know if Jacobs, who has a knee contusion, will play on Thursday or be limited in any way.

More and more, it's looking like the Packers have a preferred way to play given the injuries and personnel. Desperate to pull defenses out of two deep shells, Matt LaFleur has used a sixth offensive linemen (Darian Kinnard) and a variety of tight ends (featuring John FitzPatrick in line and Josh Whyle as an H-back) to get bigger and lean into the run. Without a true YAC weapon, the run is the best and maybe only way to beat what has stymied the Packers this year.

One thing to watch Thursday: Given how well the Lions stop the run overall, and the defense's willingness to play heavy, the Packers could have opportunities to line up in heavy personnel, use play-action and throw the ball downfield.

Either way, the Packers have an opportunity to establish the way they want to play moving forward. Either the evolving run game proves it can handle a good defensive front, or the passing game proves it can dictate personnel and throw the ball downfield. Or neither happens, and Thursday at Ford Field gets messy.

This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Time to learn if the Packers can run the ball against a good defense