Conventional Wisdom: House Retirements Edition

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Republican Representative Matt Van Epps handily won Tuesday's special election to fill a ruby-red mostly rural Tennessee district, but his 9-point margin after Donald Trump's 22-point romp there in 2024 has Democrats calling it a preview of a 2026 blue wave. This week's 13-point overperformance matches the pattern across nearly 60 special elections this year, raising expectations that Republicans will lose the House in next November's midterms. Those seemingly most sure of a Democratic sweep? The record 23 (and counting) Republican members of Congress who have already announced they won't be running again.

Mike Johnson ⬇

His speakership is on the brink of being one that only Thomas Hobbes could love: nasty, brutish and short. Remember when he emerged as the fourth nominee, literally the last possible candidate the GOP could agree on? They knew something he didn't. Staring down 11 months of hell before Democrats likely take his gavel, it's no wonder he spent 54 days in hiding during the shutdown recess. At least the worst is still to come.

Hakeem Jeffries ⬆

This close to the speakership—closer than any House Democrat since Nancy Pelosi lost the majority in 2022—despite a caucus muttering about his caution on everything from impeaching War Secretary Pete Hegseth to the Epstein discharge petition. His biggest remaining obstacle? A primary challenge from 27-year-old DSA New York City councilman Chi Ossé that Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani—whom Jeffries slow-walked endorsing for months—just shut down. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.

Marjorie Taylor Greene ⬆

Trump calls her a traitor, she exits on her own terms, and suddenly she's the principled one who stood up for Epstein victims while the president protected his billionaire friends. A resignation announcement isn’t a traditional presidential campaign launchpad, but it seems to be working.

Elise Stefanik ⬇

First, she was passed over for the U.N. ambassador job to preserve the GOP’s razor-thin majority, then Trump shiv'd her quixotic bid for New York governor with his Mamdani lovefest and now she's finishing out her time on the Hill feuding with Johnson over disclosure rules no one cares about. This loyal GOP foot soldier gets nothing. Good day, ma'am.

Mark Green ⬆

The congressman whose resignation created this week’s special election is moving on to helping Tennessee businesses expand to Guyana—the fastest-growing economy on Earth, swimming in oil money and El Dorado rum. Plus, no Mike Johnson. No wonder he called it an opportunity “too exciting to pass up.”

Henry Cuellar ⬆

Indicted for $600,000 in bribes, pardoned by Trump, and welcomed back by Jeffries as a "highly valued member of the House Democratic Caucus”—he might be the only one in Congress who’s actually happy to be there.

Originally a staple of Newsweek's print edition, Conventional Wisdom used arrows to track whose stock was rising or falling in the political circus. We're reviving it in the digital age because the problem it lampooned—hyperbole and partisan certainty masquerading as insight—has only intensified.

CW assigns arrows—up, down, or sideways—to the figures and forces shaping current events. The arrows don't predict the future or claim special insight. They capture the prevailing winds of the moment, uncluttered by tribal howling. In an era when partisan media reinforces rather than questions assumptions, CW operates from the center—skeptical of left and right alike, committed to puncturing inflated reputations and recognizing overlooked truths.

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