Canada World Cup draw scenarios 2026: Best and worst case scenario group for CanMNT

Canada World Cup draw scenarios 2026: Best and worst case scenario group for CanMNT originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

After qualifying for their first World Cup in 40 years in 2022, Canada is hoping to make further strides as they play co-host at the 2026 FIFA tournament.

Les Rouges failed to secure a single point in Qatar four years ago but still managed to gain some respect for their tenacious performances, which were only undone by individual errors they hope to stamp out with more experience.

American coach Jesse Marsch has been brought aboard to handle the continued development of the program, which he has done impressively despite financial constraints.

With the World Cup draw now set to decide their pathway forward at the coming tournament, The Sporting News looks at the various possibilities that could befall the CanMNT.

MORE:Complete breakdown of how the World Cup draw works

Best-case scenario for Canada at World Cup draw

For the most part, the World Cup draw is quite evenly distributed from a competitive-balance standpoint across most of the four pots.

The biggest concern for all teams is drawing a group that includes a UEFA playoff qualifier from Pot 4, which creates a significantly more difficult pathway to the knockout stage. Particularly, teams will wish to avoid the UEFA qualifier from Path A, which could potentially end up being Italy, the 12th-ranked team in the world.

MORE:Breaking down the pots for the 2026 World Cup draw

In short, all positive outcomes for Canada revolve around avoiding the UEFA playoff qualifiers.

One way of doing this is to just simply draw a true Pot 4 team from the Pot 4 candidates. That will be difficult, as there aren't many options for the Canada, who cannot be drawn alongside other CONCACAF teams. As such, they cannot draw either Haiti or Curacao from Pot 4, leaving just four potential nations plus the two intercontinental playoff qualifiers outside of the four UEFA qualifiers.

Another avenue is by drawing two UEFA nations from Pot 2 and Pot 3, thereby eliminating the potential to draw a UEFA team from Pot 4 due to the draw regulations that no group may contain more than two European teams. Unfortunately, the only way to do that would be to draw either Norway or Scotland from Pot 3, which both pose a relative challenge for a team in their given section.

Here are some possible World Cup draw outcomes that would be favorable for Canada:

Favorable outcome 1: Lowest-ranked teams

The following draw would put Canada against the lowest-ranked potential opponents from each pot.

Nation (FIFA ranking)

Pot

Confederation

Canada (27)

1

CONCACAF

Australia (26)

2

AFC

South Africa (61)

3

CAF

New Zealand (86)

4

OFC

Favorable outcome 2: UEFA teams from Pot 2 and 3

The following outcome would be a favorable group construction should Canada draw two UEFA qualifiers from Pots 2 and 3.

Nation (FIFA ranking)

Pot

Confederation

Canada (27)

1

CONCACAF

Austria (24)

2

UEFA

Scotland (36)

3

UEFA

Cape Verde (68)

4

AFC

Favorable outcome 3: Intercontinental playoff participant

Here is a possible group construction that would work out well should Canada draw one of the intercontinental playoff participants.

Nation (FIFA ranking)

Pot

Confederation

Canada (27)

1

CONCACAF

Iran (20)

2

AFC

Paraguay (39)

3

CONMEBOL

Iraq/Bolivia/Suriname

4

Intercontinental Playoff Path 2

Worst-case scenario for Canada at World Cup draw

Unquestionably, the worst possible result for Canada would be to draw one of the UEFA qualifiers in Pot 4, particularly Path 1, which includes Italy.

That would essentially mean Canada could end up with two Pot 2-worthy opponents, and nobody of a realistic Pot 4 standard.MORE:How the 2030 World Cup will be shared across SIX host nations — and three continents

Unfavorable outcome 1: Italy

This outcome is the likely the worst possibility for Canada. They would potentially have Italy from Pot 4, plus two brutal opponents from Pots 2 and 3 to go along with it.

Nation (FIFA ranking)

Pot

Confederation

Canada (27)

1

CONCACAF

Morocco (11)

2

CAF

Norway (29)

3

UEFA

Italy/N. Ireland/Wales/Bosnia & Herzegovina

4

UEFA Playoff Path 1

Unfavorable outcome 2: Another UEFA qualifier

While avoiding the possibility of Italy from Pot 4 will be a win regardless who else they end up with, the other UEFA playoff paths all present potential Pot 2-worthy or Pot 3-worthy qualifiers from Pot 4, an unenviable outcome.

Here's what another difficult potential group could look like if they snag one of the other UEFA playoff qualifiers.

Nation (FIFA ranking)

Pot

Confederation

Canada (27)

1

CONCACAF

Uruguay (16)

2

CONMEBOL

Egypt (34)

3

CAF

Denmark/N. Macedonia/Czechia/Rep. of Ireland

4

UEFA Playoff Path 1

When is the World Cup draw 2026?

The FIFA World Cup draw for the 2026 tournament is being conducted in the United States on December 5, 2025 at 12 p.m. ET.

It will be held at the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C.