ESPN predicts the winner of Alabama football vs Georgia for SEC title

The Alabama Crimson Tide will make their 16th all-time appearance in the SEC Championship Game Saturday. A familiar opponent awaits the Tide in Atlanta: the Georgia Bulldogs.

Alabama (10-2 overall, 7-1 SEC) and Georgia (11-1, 7-1) both notched big wins over bitter rivals last Saturday to clinch a spot in this year's title game. The Crimson Tide got out to a 17-0 lead against Auburn, but found themselves tied at 20-all late in the fourth quarter against the Tigers.

That's when Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer put the game in the hands of quarterback Ty Simpson, who executed a perfectly throw dart to Isaiah Horton on fourth-and-2 from the Auburn 6-yard line for the duo's third touchdown of the night and the go-ahead score.

Bray Hubbard forced a Cam Coleman fumble at the Crimson Tide 20-yard line with 33 seconds left to (mostly) put the game out of reach; Alabama still had to avoid a blocked punt and get a stop on one last-gasp Auburn possession with eight seconds remaining to win its sixth straight Iron Bowl matchup.

Georgia defeated Georgia Tech, 16-9, in "Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate" in Week 14. Gunner Stockton was held to just 70 passing yards, but he hit Zachariah Branch in the second quarter for the game's only touchdown.

Alabama is No. 10 in the US LBM Coaches Poll, but the Crimson Tide rose one spot to No. 9 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, unveiled on Tuesday; Georgia is No. 3 in both the polls and CFP rankings.

Will Alabama beat Georgia? ESPN's prediction

Oddsmakers have Georgia as a slight favorite over Alabama, but as always, ESPN analytics has its own odds for Saturday's game.

ESPN's matchup predictor, which offers a prediction model based on its college football power index and other variables, gives Alabama a 51.1% chance to win and Georgia a 48.9% chance.

The Crimson Tide are sixth in ESPN's latest FPI ratings, down one spot from last week. Alabama has a 21.5 overall rating, compared to 21.8 last week. Georgia has a 20.8 rating that's two spots below Alabama at No. 8 in ESPN's metrics.

Alabama football odds of reaching 2025 CFP entering SEC championship

According to ESPN's Allstate Playoff Predictor, Alabama currently has a 97% chance to reach the College Football Playoff. The Crimson Tide have a 38% chance to host a playoff game at Bryant-Denny Stadium, and a 3% of earning a first-round bye with a win over Georgia in the SEC title game.

In ESPN's FPI ratings entering conference championship week, Alabama's chances of reaching the 12-team College Football Playoff sit at 96.3%. That's up from 68% before the Crimson Tide's win at Auburn.

Alabama is currently given a 51.0 chance of winning the SEC title (up from 38.8% last week), a 10.7% chance to reach the national championship game on Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami (up from 8.2% last week), and a 4.4% shot of winning the national title (from 4.1% entering Week 14).

Alabama trails the Ohio State Buckeyes (28.5), Indiana Hoosiers (28.4), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (25.0), Oregon Ducks (25.0), and Texas Tech Red Raiders (22.0) in the latest FPI ratings. The Crimson Tide fell one spot in the FPI from last week.

SEC football teams ranked by ESPN FPI after 2025 regular season

Here's a look at where Alabama and other SEC teams sit in the FPI after the final week of the regular season.

• 16. Mississippi State Bulldogs (4.6 FPI)

• 15. Kentucky Wildcats (5.1 FPI)

• 14. Arkansas Razorbacks (7.0 FPI)

• 13. Florida Gators (8.2 FPI)

• 12. South Carolina Gamecocks (9.3 FPI)

• 11. Auburn Tigers (11.3 FPI)

• 10. LSU Tigers (11.7 FPI)

• 9. Missouri Tigers (14.2 FPI)

• 8. Tennessee Volunteers (15.0 FPI)

• 7. Oklahoma Sooners (16.7 FPI)

• 6. Vanderbilt Commodores (17.7 FPI)

• 5. Texas Longhorns (18.2 FPI)

• 4. Ole Miss Rebels (18.3 FPI)

• 3. Texas A&M Aggies (18.9 FPI)

• 2. Georgia Bulldogs (20.8 FPI)

• 1. Alabama Crimson Tide (21.5 FPI)

What is ESPN College Football Power Index (FPI)?

ESPN explains:

"The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete."

Alabama football vs. Georgia start time, TV information for SEC championship

Kickoff for Alabama-Georgia in the SEC Championship Game in Week 15 of the 2025 college football season is 3 p.m. CT Saturday at Mercedes-Ben Stadium. The game can be seen on ABC. Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit will call the game for ABC. Holly Rowe and Laura Rutledge will report from the sidelines.

Alabama football schedule 2025

All start times Central.

• Aug. 30: at Florida State (L, 31-17)

• Sept. 6: vs. UL Monroe (W, 73-0)

• Sept. 13: vs. Wisconsin (W, 38-14)

• Sept. 27: at Georgia (W, 24-21)

• Oct. 4: vs. Vanderbilt (W, 30-14)

• Oct. 11: at Missouri (W, 27-24)

• Oct. 18: vs. Tennessee (W, 37-20)

• Oct. 25: at South Carolina (W, 29-22)

• Nov. 8: vs. LSU (W, 20-9)

• Nov. 15: vs. Oklahoma (L, 23-21)

• Nov. 22 vs. Eastern Illinois (W, 56-0)

• Nov. 29: at Auburn (W, 27-20)

• Dec. 6: vs. Georgia, 3 p.m.

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This article originally appeared on Roll Tide Wire: Alabama football odds of beating Georgia in SEC title game, per ESPN