Alex FrankTue, December 2, 2025 at 9:05 PM UTC·9 min readIt is valid to call Tuesday night’s game against North Carolina a must-win game for the Kentucky Wildcats. They don’t need to win this game for their NCAA Tournament hopes, but they do need to win for the morale of the team and the fanbase.
While there have been some positives to come out of Kentucky’s wins against Loyola (Md.) and Tennessee Tech, those wins aren’t going to move the needle.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementA win over North Carolina? Now, that would move the needle, especially when you consider this Tar Heels team is significantly better than the one that barely made the NCAA Tournament last season.
This is going to be an awesome environment inside Rupp Arena Tuesday night. Two shades of blue, two, not just blue bloods, but giants of college basketball and basketball in general, going at it on the second night of December. It’s not far-fetched to say this could be a Sweet 16 or Elite Eight preview.
Let’s take a look at the Tar Heels, keys to the game, and score prediction for Tuesday night.
Players to Watch on North Carolina
1. No. 8: Caleb Wilson — 6’10” 215 lbs. Fr. Forward, Atlanta; Holy Innocents Episcopal SchoolStats: 19.9 pts, 9.9 rebs, 12 stl, 58.8 FG%, 2-8 3-PT FG, 76.8 FT%, 28.2 mpg
Prior to North Carolina’s game against Michigan State, Wilson had a streak of four double-doubles. He has four games this season with 20+ points, and he has scored at least 13 points in each of the Tar Heels’ seven games this season.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe key to not letting Wilson take over games is to make him take a lot of shots. He likes to take about 8-11 shots per game, but he’s been around 12-13 over the Tar Heels’ last three games. In addition, Willson is just 10-of-23 from the floor over his last two games, with both of them coming in the Fort Myers Tip-Off.
Wilson is a long, big-bodied player who can slash his way to the rim. He played in the McDonald’s All-American Game and the Jordan Brand Classic after his senior season in high school, where he averaged 21.7 points and 11.1 rebounds per game.
2. No. 13: Henri Veesaar — 7’0” 225 lbs. Jr. Center, Tallinn, Estonia; Arizona TransferStats: 15.9 pts, 8.3 rebs, 11 blk, 64.6 FG%, 6-14 3-PT FG, 65.6 FT%, 29.9 mpg
Like Wilson, Veesaar has great length and will look to get to the rim. He has three double-doubles on the season, including 24 points and 13 rebounds against St. Bonaventure last week in Fort Myers.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementVeesaar comes to North Carolina after three seasons at Arizona, where he redshirted one of those seasons. He’s coming off a 2024-25 season where he played in all 37 games for Arizona, ranking fourth in the Big 12 in block percentage, fifth in two-point percentage (66.9%) and eighth in overall player efficiency. In addition, Veesaar is a very efficient scorer, shooting 60% or better from the floor in 24 games last season.
3. No. 44: Luka Bogavac — 6’6” 215 lbs. Jr. Guard, Mojkovac, MontenegroStats: 12 pts/gm., 2.6 rebs, 38% FG, 31.7 3-PT FG%, 17-23 FT, 27.6 mpg
Bogavac played in 55 games over the last two seasons for SC Derby Podgorica in Montenegro, in the AdmiralBet ABA League (Adriatic Basketball Association), prior to coming to Chapel Hill.
So far this season, Bogavac has scored in double figures in six of North Carolina’s seven games. His season high is 19 points against Radford. In addition, Bogavac has a streak of four straight games with multiple three-pointers.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement4. No. 15: Jarin Stevenson — 6’10” 215 lbs. Jr. Forward, Chapel Hill (Seaforth HS in Pittsboro, N.C.); Alabama TransferStats: 7.9 pts, 4.4 rebs, 42.1 FG%, 5-20 3-PT FG, 69.2 FT%, 25.8 mpg
Kentucky fans remember Stevenson from last season, when he was with Alabama, having played two seasons with the Crimson Tide, including their Final Four team in 2024. His best performance was a 19-point, 5-for-5 from the three-point line game against Clemson in the Elite Eight in 2024.
Stevenson has two games this season scoring in double figures, and he is 10-of-19 from the floor over his last three games.
The 2023 Gatorade North Carolina Player of the Year, Stevenson’s father Jarod and uncle Greg both played basketball at Richmond and are members of their Athletics Hall of Fame.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement5. No. 0: Kyan Eavns — 6’2” 175 lbs. Jr. Guard, Kansas City, Mo.; Staley HS (Colorado State Transfer)Stats: 7.9 pts, 3 rebs/gm., 31 ast.-16 TO, 41.3 FG%, 32.4 3-PT FG%, 6-8 FT, 28 mpg
Evans is coming off a 2024-25 season in which he was an Honorable Mention All-Mountain West selection, leading Colorado State in three-pointers and three-point percentage. He led the Mountain West in true shooting percentage, and his 23 points against Memphis helped the Rams to an upset of the Tigers in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament.
So far this season, Evans has three games with double-digit points and two games with three or more three-pointers.
In high school, Evans was the 2023 Missouri Gatorade Player of the Year and a three-time All-State honoree.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementEvans has been North Carolina’s top point guard with regular starter Seth Trimble out.
6. No. 3: Derek Dixon — 6’5” 200 lbs. Fr. Guard, Vienna, Va.; Gonzaga College HS (Washington, D.C.)Stats: 4.9 pts, 2.6 rebs, 9-23 FG, 8-16 3-PT FG, 8-10 FT, 13.6 mpg
Dixon brings an accomplished career at Gonzaga College High School in our nation’s capital, winning the 2025 Gatorade Player of the Year for the District of Columbia and scoring over 1,500 points in four seasons at the varsity level. As a Senior, he made 80 three-pointers and shot 38.5% from three-point range.
Dixon is North Carolina’s best three-point shooter, shooting 50% from beyond the arc through seven games. With Wilson and Veesaar down low, don’t lose Dixon and let him get too many open looks from beyond the arc.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement7. No. 11: Jonathan Powell — 6’6” 190 lbs. So. Guard/Forward, Centerville, Ohio; Centerville HS (West Virginia Transfer)Stats: 3.9 pts, 2.4 rebs, 27.6 FG%, 7-23 3-PT FG, 4-8 FT, 16.9 mpg
As a freshman at West Virginia, Powell started the last 23 games last season and finished second on the team with 64 three-pointers and fourth on the team with 8.3 points per game. With only 18 turnovers in 963 minutes on the season, his turnover percentage was the lowest in the Big 12.
In high school at Centerville, Powell was the Ohio Division I Player of the Year as a senior and First-Team All-State as a junior. Powell shot 41% from the field and nearly 40% from three-point range over his last two seasons in high school.
This season, Powell has multiple three-pointers in two games and is coming off a season-high seven rebounds against Michigan State.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementHead Coach: Hubert Davis (5th Season, 107-46) — 55 years old
Davis is the epitome of a Tar Heel. He played for North Carolina from 1988 to 1992, including on the Tar Heels’ 1991 Final Four team. Following a 12-year NBA career with six different teams— he was a first-round draft pick by the New York Knicks in 1992 and entered the 2025-26 NBA Season second all-time behind Steve Kerr in three-point field goal percentage— and a multi-year broadcasting career, he returned to North Carolina to be an assistant coach for nine seasons under Roy Williams.
The Tar Heels went to back-to-back National Championship Games in 2016 and 2017, winning the National Championship in 2017, while also winning three ACC regular-season championships and the 2016 ACC Tournament Championship.
When Williams retired following the 2021 season, Davis was named his successor. In his first season, the Tar Heels made a remarkable and wild run to the National Championship Game as a No. 8 seed. The Tar Heels led Kansas by as many as 16 points in that game before falling 72-69 in the largest come-from-behind win in NCAA National Championship Game history.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementNorth Carolina was a No. 1 seed in the 2024 NCAA Tournament, winning the ACC regular-season championship, and Davis was ACC Coach of the Year.
The Tar Heels have reached three NCAA Tournaments in their first four seasons under Davis.
In his 12-year playing career, Davis averaged 8.2 points per game and played on the Knicks’ 1994 NBA Finals team that took the Houston Rockets to seven games.
Keys to the Game
1. Make the crowd a factor early
Wildcats’ fans are on edge right now with how the Louisville and Michigan State games went. Come out and hit a few shots and make a few plays on defense, and the crowd at Rupp Arena will be a factor for a Tar Heels team that has not played a true road game all season.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement2. Take care of the ball
This is a key for every marquee game. North Carolina’s opponents are only averaging 10.9 turnovers per game, and the Tar Heels only have 44 steals through seven games. Don’t give them any extra possessions. Taking care of the ball will be a big key to this game.
3. Rebounding
Like most Tar Heel teams, this team is really good on the glass. The Tar Heels average 43.6 rebounds per game, and they only allow 33.7 rebounds per game. Kentucky’s frontcourt is going to have to really step up to go toe-to-toe with Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar on the glass.
4. Guard the paint
North Carolina lives in the paint. The Tar Heels are shooting 46.8% from the field, but that percentage drops to just 31.8% from beyond the arc. Kentucky denying North Carolina any easy looks and forcing them to take longer, low-percentage shots will be paramount to winning this game Tuesday night. Put it this way: The Tar Heels’ best three-point shooter by percentage is Derek Dixon at 50%. He’s only taken 16 three-point attempts.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementScore Prediction: Wildcats 83, Tar Heels 76
Mark Pope and this Wildcats team know they need to win this game. It’s not technically considered a must-win, but it’s a game they really need to win for morale purposes. I fully expect this Wildcats team to come out with a high sense of urgency and energy, putting the Tar Heels behind the eight-ball early. A good start will lead to a good night for Kentucky and a win to boost the morale and psyche of the fanbase in early December.
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