The Phil Maton signing by the numbers

The stove is hot and even the normally cautious Cubs front office is getting in on the early moves, signing righthander Phil Maton to a two-year deal, with an option for at third year, on Friday. Maton will turn 33 before the season starts and has bounced around the league as a high-leverage reliever the last few seasons. Today I want to dive into some of the numbers behind the deal, although it’s worth noting while we know the years of the contract the actual dollar amount has yet to be reported.

Maton was the setup man in the Cardinals bullpen last year before being traded to the Texas Rangers at the deadline when it became clear St. Louis wasn’t going to make the Postseason. Maton has moved a lot in his career because he’s a reliable arm in the bullpen, which tends to be a valuable commodity at the trade deadline.

Maton’s body of work doesn’t jump off the page as elite (although there were meaningful improvements in 2025, more on that below). However, he’s logged at least 60 innings every year since 2021. That’s a decent amount of volume for a reliever over a span of five years.

I ran all of the relievers who had at least 60 innings a season since 2021 and while Maton doesn’t jump to the top of the leaderboard, his 2025 season is the best season of his career (72nd best season by a reliever with at least 60 innings out of more than 430 seasons, for those of you who are curious about such things). You can some key stats for Maton since 2021 below:

Season

Team

SV

G

IP

K/9

BB/9

HR/9

BABIP

LOB%

GB%

HR/FB

ERA

xERA

FIP

xFIP

WAR

2021

– – –

0

64

65.1

11.30

4.27

0.83

.345

70.96%

39.64%

8.82%

4.68

3.61

3.55

4.20

0.6

2022

HOU

0

67

65.2

10.01

3.29

1.37

.289

73.68%

38.15%

15.38%

3.84

4.29

4.33

3.82

-0.1

2023

HOU

1

68

66

10.09

3.41

0.82

.269

75.07%

42.94%

8.96%

3.00

3.14

3.74

4.24

0.6

2024

– – –

3

71

64

8.44

3.38

0.98

.242

75.50%

46.78%

11.48%

3.66

4.31

4.26

4.28

0.1

2025

– – –

5

63

61.1

11.89

3.38

0.44

.291

75.22%

44.44%

6.98%

2.79

2.85

2.60

3.04

1.5

That’s an above average, not quite elite, strike out rate paired with a low walk rate. Perhaps most impressive is the improvement across the board in ERA, xERA, FIP and xFIP during Maton’s 2025 season. Will Sammon and Patrick Mooney at The Athletic noted the following about his improvement and tendency to tinker:

Since he didn’t have much of a full spring training to build a rapport with Cardinals catchers, he started calling his own pitches via PitchCom for the first time — and had a terrific season. Over 61 1/3 innings, Maton had a career-best 2.79 ERA with a 32.7 percent strikeout rate, his highest figure since the shortened 2020 season.

Known around the league for his pitching IQ, Maton also reworked his mechanics, helping him boost his velocity. Maton has never thrown especially hard. But he increased the average velocity on his cutter from 88.7 mph in 2024 to 90.6 mph in 2025. With teams continuing to value velocity, it’s not out of the question to think Maton may find a way to reach another gear.

The increased velocity and improved strikeout rate are both notable. That strikeout rate is actually even better when you look at his splits since the trade to the Rangers. Maton struck out 36.7% of the batters he faced as a member of the Rangers while walking just 8.9% of hitters for a K-BB% of 27.8% with Texas. For comparison, he struck out 30.4% of the batters he faced as a member of the Cardinals while walking 9.5% of hitters for a 20.9% K-BB%.

While many are reporting that his 2.35 ERA ballooned to 3.52 after the trade, it’s worth noting that his FIP and xFIP of 2.54 and 3.24 were basically flat to improvements with the Rangers where he posted a 2.70 and 2.71 respectively.

If those improvements with the Rangers are durable, Maton may have tinkered his way to a new caliber of relief arm. To return to those 430+ seasons of relievers who have thrown at least 60 innings since 2021, that 27.8% K-BB% would slot in as the 21st best season by a reliever in that five-year period, right between 2024 Jeff Hoffman at 27.5% and 2025 Griffin Jax at 28.1%.

This seems like a pretty savvy signing by the Cubs front office. Maton should provide high-leverage innings for the Cubs. Pending the terms of the contract, this is a nice addition to rebuild the backend of a bullpen that traded away Andrew Kittredge and has currently lost Brad Keller, Caleb Thielbar and Drew Pomeranz to free agency.