If the Red Sox want Cole Ragans, they need to pay a hefty price

Yes, we’ve already covered the trade rumors about the Royals and Jarren Duran. But one thing that has persistently been raised in the rumor mill since mid-season is that the Red Sox want Cole Ragans to be a part of a deal in which they’d give up Duran. So it makes sense to revisit what a trade for Duran might look like with that in mind. Here are a few options.

A “fair” trade

This was the first trade I came up with while I was playing with the Baseball Trade Values tool, and it’s one the website would consider “fair.” I brought it up to my podcast co-host, Jacob Milham, in our latest episode. He suggested subbing in Payton Tolle for Bello instead, which would raise this to a slight overpay on BTV, but not unreasonably so. Feel free to substitute Tolle’s name in your own mind.

Why the Royals could do it: Duran would solve their left field problems for three years, with the ability to shift to center if they found another left field bat and decided to move on from Kyle Isbel. Brayan Bello could easily step into the rotation, and while he doesn’t offer the ace upside of Ragans, he’s been pretty solid for multiple years, is at a reasonable price for his production, and under club control for the next five seasons. Garrett Whitlock was one of the best relievers in baseball last season, worth an incredible 2.2 fWAR in only 72 innings, and would give the Royals the potential for the closest they’ve come to having an HDH combo in the backend of their ‘pen since 2015.

Why the Royals shouldn’t do it: Successful playoff teams typically have at least one ace-level starter and one superstar position player. For the Dodgers last year, it was Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Without Ragans, the Royals would no longer have that ace unless Seth Lugo bounces back or Kris Bubic can stay healthy for an entire season for the first time since 2022. Both of those are real possibilities, but you’d rather hope they’re pushing you over the top rather than helping you meet the bare minimum.

Also, this might be a fair trade on BTV, but it represents a severe dip in Ragans’ value since last offseason. The Royals have very little incentive to deal Ragans as if he’s truly missing as much value as BTV thinks.

Becoming an overpay

This proposal would be a massive overpay, according to BTV, but I still don’t think I’d be willing to do this one.

Why the Royals could do it: Duran is still Duran, but now they’d also potentially be solving their infield problems as well with top prospect Marcelo Mayer.

Why the Royals shouldn’t do it: Duran is still Duran, but this would leave them without a starting pitcher, and Marcelo Mayer has a lot of red flags in his profile. Despite AAA hitting being completely out of control last year, Mayer only had a 113 wRC+ in 43 games. When he came to the big leagues, he had an 80 wRC+ before going on the IL for the rest of the year with a wrist injury. He has trouble with breaking stuff and a lot of his projectable value comes from a terrific defensive reputation at shortstop and the promise of a lot of left-handed power from that position. He simply wouldn’t be as valuable defensively for the Royals, since he wouldn’t play short for them, and they’re looking to add consistency.

BTV thinks Mayer could provide significantly more excess value than Kristian Campbell (more on him in a moment) going forward, but that assumes his injuries don’t continue to be a problem and he learns to hit better. I think they’re overvaluing Mayer a lot here, and FanGraphs gives Campbell a 60-grade Future Value, but Mayer only a 55.

Finally, adding Duran is difficult enough with how lefty-heavy their lineup leans. Adding Mayer as another lefty doesn’t seem like a great plan.

Now we’re getting somewhere

The first thing you’ll probably note is that this trade doesn’t include Jarren Duran. That’s for one simple reason. Jarren Duran isn’t good enough to be the centerpiece for a trade for Cole Ragans. With the amount of talent Ragans has and the amount of control he has left, Duran simply isn’t a big enough get to be the main attraction in a trade for the left-handed ace. This is the kind of deal I think I would be willing to accept on behalf of the Royals, and the sort of thing they’re probably imagining when they say, “[No one is] off limits. […] There would have to be a really big return for one [starter] in particular.”

Why the Royals should do this: Listen, an ace is all well and good, but if you can get two of the most promising young bats in the sport that happen to play at your two positions of greatest need, and they’ve already signed extensions controlling their costs for the foreseeable future? You do that deal. Add in Whitlock, and your team is drastically better four nights out of five for years, and not much worse on that fifth night, depending on how you choose to fill that rotation spot. With the lineup set up for massive success, the Royals could definitely go out and pay one of the top starting pitcher free agents a fair deal to come to KC and support the starters they’ve already got on staff. If they think they can fix Zac Gallen, they might not even have to pay that much.

Why the Red Sox might not do this: It’s really tough to trade away a player right after you convince him to commit to your team long term. Even tougher when that player is a rookie or sophomore. The Red Sox would be doing it with two of them in Anthony and Campbell. But if you want to add a known ace to your rotation with years of control left, the cost is going to be painful. If the Red Sox really want to get their hands on Cole Ragans, this is what it should cost.

Hopefully, that gives you a better idea of the value of Cole Ragans in a trade and why you shouldn’t be too worried about the Royals trading him. Either they won’t, or they’re going to get back such a haul that you’ll be able to find solace in the new players joining the team.