Here's the Packers' NFL playoff picture after win over Vikings

The Green Bay Packers moved to 7-3-1 with a win over the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, Nov. 23, but there was one problem: Most of the other teams in the NFC playoff picture won, as well.

The San Francisco 49ers have yet to play, with a Monday night game against Carolina. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost to the Los Angeles Rams and the Philadelphia Eagles fell to Dallas, although that has less significance to the Packers at the moment since both the Eagles and Bucs lead their divisions, and what they do has less impact on Green Bay's playoff plight.

Wins by the Rams, Chicago Bears, Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions essentially meant the Packers held serve, coming into the new week with the No. 6 spot in the NFC title picture. A loss to the Lions on Thanksgiving could (at least temporarily) knock the Packers from a playoff spot altogether.

Would the Packers be in the NFL playoffs if the season ended today?

Yes, Green Bay's 7-3-1 record makes it the No. 6 seed in the NFC, slightly ahead of San Francisco (7-4) for the final spot and Detroit (7-4) for a playoff spot at all.

For the moment, the 49ers have a tiebreaker over Detroit, but the Lions can leapfrog San Francisco if the 49ers lose to Carolina on Monday night, Nov. 24.

Would the Lions miss the NFL playoffs if the season ended today?

Yes, Detroit would be on the outside looking in, but right now that's only because the 49ers hold a tenuous tiebreaker (winning percentage in conference games).

Who would the Packers play in the NFL playoffs if the season ended today?

You ready for this? The Packers would travel to Soldier Field to face the No. 3 seed Bears (8-3).

Would the Packers get bumped from a playoff spot with a loss to Detroit?

If San Francisco defeats Carolina on Nov. 24, then the Packers would indeed fall out of the playoff picture altogether with a loss to Detroit on Thanksgiving, at least until the outcomes resume Sunday.

If Carolina wins, the Packers would still have a hold on a playoff spot, even with a loss to Detroit.

The Bears cannot possibly be this good, can they?

Chicago has a negative point differential on the season (minus-3) but has won eight of 11 games, including dramatic finishes galore during its four-game winning streak. The Bears have won their last four games by a combined 14 points, all against teams that would be outside the playoff picture if the season ended today.

Green Bay will get its chance to battle the Bears head-to-head, with games Dec. 7 and Dec. 20.

It's not unusual for teams with negative point differentials to make the playoffs. The Rams did it last year with a negative-19 (finishing 10-7), and a staggering four teams made the playoffs in 2022 with a negative differential, including the 13-4 Vikings.

The 2013 Packers went on a miraculous run to reach the playoffs at 8-7-1 with a minus-11 point differential. Fifty-two teams have done it since the NFL-AFL merger.

Did the Packers gain any ground at all on NFC playoff contenders in Week 12?

Philadelphia's loss to the Cowboys pulled the Eagles down to 8-3. Though the Packers could leapfrog the Eagles for seeding priority, that's only going to apply if Green Bay wins the NFC North; the Eagles are well on their way to the NFC East title, even though Dallas just got a little closer.

Likewise, Tampa Bay now has a worse record than the Packers, but because the Buccaneers lead the NFC South, they'd have a higher seeding priority unless Green Bay moves into control of the North. Tampa Bay is tied with Carolina in the South but owns a tiebreaker based on division wins. Carolina could bypass Tampa Bay with a win over San Francisco on Nov. 24.

Who are the teams in the NFC playoff picture?

• The Rams (9-2) lead the NFC West and have the best record in the NFC. The top seed in each conference gets a playoff bye.

• Philadelphia (8-3) leads the NFC East and has a tiebreaker over Chicago based on record in conference games.

• Chicago (8-3) leads the NFC North and has the No. 3 seed.

• Tampa Bay (6-5) leads the NFC South even after three straight losses and momentarily holds the tiebreaker over Carolina (6-5). Because the Bucs lead a division, they have the No. 4 seed; if Carolina wins on Monday night, however, Tampa Bay would fall out of the playoff picture altogether.

• Seattle (8-3) gets bumped to a wild card after losing to the Rams in Week 11, but the Seahawks are still the No. 5 seed. They don't have seeding priority over Tampa Bay because they aren't leading a division.

• Green Bay (7-3-1) gets the No. 6 seed as the second wild card.

• San Francisco (7-4) gets the No. 7 and final seed, but that hinges on a win Monday night against Carolina. Without that, Detroit (7-4) would move into the No. 7 spot with a better record. San Francisco doesn't have a bye until Dec. 7.

What's left on Packers' 2025 schedule?

The Packers face an absolute gauntlet to finish the 2025 season:

• Nov. 27 at Lions (7-4)

• Dec. 7 vs. Bears (8-3)

• Dec. 14 at Broncos (9-2)

• Week 16 at Bears (8-3)

• Week 17 vs. Ravens (6-5)

• Week 18 at Vikings (4-7)

The Bears, Broncos and Ravens are leading their division.

Does Green Bay have the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL?

Yes, by far. The Packers have the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL, according to opponent win percentage, at .636. Next on the list is Indianapolis at .621.

Detroit (.606) and Chicago (.606) are tied for third, followed by Carolina (.576) in fifth and Seattle (.576) in sixth. But other contenders like the Rams (.470, 21st), Philadelphia (.455, 24th), Dallas (.433, 29th) and Tampa Bay (.379, 30th) are near the bottom. The 49ers are 13th with .515.

What are the key tiebreakers to follow for the Packers?

Green Bay's tie to Dallas essentially negates most tiebreakers, unless it involves an unlikely head-to-head comparison with the Cowboys (or unless another NFC contender has a tie). Green Bay will, most likely, have a better or worse mark than teams on record alone.

What are the NFC standings?

• Los Angeles Rams, 9-2 (NFC West leader)

• Philadelphia, 8-3 (NFC East leader)

• Chicago, 8-3 (NFC North leader)

• Tampa Bay, 6-5 (NFC South leader)

• Seattle, 8-3

• Green Bay, 7-3-1

• San Francisco, 7-4

• Detroit, 7-4

• Carolina, 6-5

• Dallas, 5-5-1

• Atlanta, 4-7

• Minnesota, 4-7

• Arizona, 3-8

• Washington, 3-8

• New Orleans, 2-9

• New York Giants, 2-10

The Giants are the only NFC team that has been eliminated from playoff contention.

This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Where are Packers in NFC playoff picture after win over Vikings?