Steelers Read & React Week 13 preview — What to expect against the Bills

After a deflating loss to the Chicago Bears last week, the Steelers will be hosting Josh Allen and co. in Pittsburgh this Sunday.

The 7-4 Bills aren’t faring much better than the 6-5 Steelers this year, with the New England Patriots having taken over as the top team in the AFC East.

The narrative around Buffalo is that it’s still a dangerous team thanks to the talents of Josh Allen and a potent run game. But it’s a flawed team like the rest of the AFC’s lineup, and might just be an easier matchup than many Steeler fans realize.

Let’s take a look at what the Bills really are in 2025:

What to expect from the Bills’ offense

Rushing YPG: 147.2 (1st)

Passing YPG: 234.6 (9th)

PPG: 28.3 (5th) 

RP: The Bills remain dangerous as ever on offense. However, despite ranking near the top of the league in rushing, passing, and scoring, the sentiment around the Bills seems to be that the offense has been a disappointment this year. While talking to Matthew Byham of Buffalo Rumblings this week, he told me the numbers are disguising what has been a strained passing attack this season. He described the Buffalo offense as “laborious” when they are unable to run effectively. Still, it’s hard to feel too bad for the Bills when they remain among the most efficient offenses overall, by most metrics.

Of course, any conversation about the Bills’ offense begins with reigning MVP Josh Allen. On the year, Allen is completing 69.7% of his passes for 2,701 yards, 18 touchdowns, and nine interceptions.

We all know about Allen’s big arm and his improvisational skills as a passer, but he’s just as dangerous running the ball. He’s added 371 yards on the ground and 10 rushing touchdowns so far this year, marking the third straight season he’s accumulated double-digit scores, which puts him in some rarified air as a runner.

Still, if there is one way to get to Allen, it’s to make him hold onto the ball. That’s something he’s prone to already, trailing just four other quarterbacks in average time holding onto the ball. When you eliminate screen plays from that data set, Allen trails only Caleb Williams and Jalen Hurts.

It’s a double-edged sword for Allen. On the positive side, holding onto the ball longer can lead to some of the magic we’re accustomed to seeing from him: scrambles and big play-hunting. He’s the reigning MVP because he is seemingly able to create explosive plays this way more often than not. But holding onto the ball can also lead to sacks and turnovers. Only five quarterbacks have been sacked more than Allen (28), and only six passers have thrown more interceptions.

A lot of the Bills’ passing game woes — and again they do put up a lot of yardage — are because they are lacking a dominant pass catcher, especially on the outside. Khalil Shakir leads the Bills in receptions (54) and yards (564), but operates best in the slot. The Bills’ second leading receiver, Keon Coleman (32 receptions, 330 yards), has been a healthy scratch in recent weeks. Of the rest of the Bills’ pass catchers, only two have more than 20 receptions: tight end Dalton Kincaid (29) and running back James Cook (24). Kincaid has missed two straight games with a hamstring injury, and it’s not looking promising for Sunday.

As such, stopping the run will be important if the Steelers hope to beat Buffalo. That’s no easy task, as the Bills have one of the best offensive lines in the league, and Cook has become one of the most explosive runners in the league. Cook’s 1,084 rushing yards are the second-most in the NFL, and his 26 runs of 10-plus yards trail only Jonathan Taylor and Devon Achane.

The Steelers should focus on bottling up Cook. If the secondary can get back to the play they had before last week’s game, the Bills lack guys who can consistently win in man coverage. A heavy dose of that, as well as a spy on Josh Allen, should put them in the best position to keep the score manageable enough for the Pittsburgh offense to keep pace.

What to expect from the Bills’ defense

Rushing YPG Allowed: 148.9 (30th)

Passing YPG Allowed: 168.2 (1st)

PPG Allowed: 22.9 (17th)  

RB: Just from the first glance at the statistics above, you can immediately tell the biggest storyline with this Bills defense: best against the pass – bottom three against the run.

Of course, if you think Steeler fans have issues with their defense this year, spend a few minutes on Bills Twitter. The Bills Mafia has been disgusted with Buffalo’s play on that side of the ball this year, and coordinator Bobby Babich, as well as defensively-minded head coach Sean McDermott, have been the subject of plenty of “fire this guy” discussions over the last few months.

While the Buffalo offense hasn’t entirely lived up to expectations this season, as Ryan pointed out above, the defense remains by far the biggest issue. It’s worth pointing out that the Bills’ passing defense isn’t quite as dominant as the yards per game stats may show – teams pass against Buffalo the fourth-least in the NFL per Next Gen Stats, which certainly skews the numbers.

But first, what’s up with the awful run defense?

It’s largely a personnel issue. The defensive line’s best player, Ed Oliver, is on injured reserve. The Bills added D-linemen Larry Ogunjobi and Michael Hoecht this offseason, but both started off the year suspended and Hoecht was lost for the season with an injury shortly after returning.

That’s placed more responsibility on players such as rookie defensive lineman Deone Walker, who has already exceeded expectations in his first NFL season. But there’s no denying it’s still an undermanned unit.

The Bills run defense has actually been more hit and miss than consistently terrible this season: Per Next Gen Stats, they’ve allowed the second-most 10-plus-yard runs this year with 48, but they’ve also stuffed 18.2% of opposing rush attempts, good for sixth-highest in the NFL.

That’s the sign of a defense that has some good gap shooters, but not necessarily the beef to properly smother an opposing passing attack.

The Bills’ front seven can get pushed around, with even the Texans’ struggling running game managing 4.6 yards per carry for rookie Woody Marks last week.

The linebacking corps are probably the bigger issue, where Buffalo has struggled with age and injury this season. Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard have been playing below 100%, and the results being beyond obvious on tape.

As a result, teams have spammed runs outside the tackles against Buffalo at the second-highest rate in the NFL. And to make matters worse, the Bills have been one of the worst tackling teams in the league, allowing an NFL-worst 4.3 yards after contact per run. It can be brutal to watch sometimes.

It has improved some as the season has gone on, but the Bills run defense is still a major weakness.

To a lesser extent, the pass rush has also been disappointing. The Bills sit at 15th in the NFL in pressure rate, but they have the third-slowest average time to pressure (2.85 seconds).

Defensive end Greg Rousseau hasn’t lived up to his $20 million per year contract with just three sacks this season, but he has made a bigger impact on tape.

Joey Bosa, Buffalo’s other starting end, has also been better than many realize even if he’s past his prime.

However, the Bills just don’t have great depth on the front seven, especially with injuries, leading to what has been a disappointing season overall for the group. They also don’t blitz a ton – just 25th in the NFL – sending the odd interior pressure but not leaning heavily into sim pressures or unorthodox fronts.

On the flip side, the Buffalo secondary has been better than the average NFL fan probably realizes, led by first-team all-underrated names Christian Benford and Taron Johnson in the cornerback room. Tre’Davious White, another past-his-prime veteran, has looked solid in his return to Buffalo, as has first-round rookie Maxwell Hairston, who’s added some much-needed speed to the defense.

The Bills generally do a good job of mixing up their coverage concepts, especially shining in man.

However, Johnson hasn’t looked like his past self this season, and the Bills have struggled at times in their zone coverage schemes that can look an awful lot like Pittsburgh’s spot-drop tendencies.

But to the Buffalo secondary’s credit, they attack the ball well after the catch. The Bills are one of two teams in the NFL with negative yards after catch over expected allowed (yeah, that’s a mouthful), allowing just 936 yards after the catch this season – good enough for best in the NFL.

Safety Cole Bishop has improved from one of the weak links on the Buffalo defense to a bright spot as the season has gone on.

Like Bishop, the Buffalo defense as a whole has taken some steps forward after an abysmal start to the season, but its middling rank in points per game allowed is accurate – this is a beatable unit.

As always, the injury report will be an important one to watch this week. As of Thursday, Bernard still hasn’t participated in practice this week.

How should the Steelers gameplan? You’ve probably guessed it already. Establishing a strong run game with Jaylen Warren should be paramount. And getting the jumbo package rolling to bully the Buffalo front seven could lead to success if the Pittsburgh passing game can do enough to keep the Bills honest.