Week 13 College Football Playoff eliminator

With just one week remaining before the conference championship games, a whopping 30 teams still have a shot at the College Football Playoff. Three teams have already locked themselves into bids (Ohio State, Indiana, and Texas A&M) with 11-0 starts to the season. That means there are 27 teams fighting for the final nine spots. And since Ohio State and Indiana are in the same conference, we already have at least one at-large bid locked up.

The fight for the at-larges heats up, and chaos in rivalry week can shake up a lot of bids. By our count, there are only 18 teams that can still earn an at-large (and one of those––James Madison––looks increasingly unlikely). Of those 18, five of them will almost certainly earn auto-bids. So, realistically, there are 18 teams fighting for 11 Playoff spots (the AAC champion, Mountain West champion, or James Madison will earn the 12th), unless we see some chaos and an unlikely power conference champion.

Who are those 18 teams? They'll be the 18 we look at in this week's Bubble Watch, but they are: Miami and Georgia Tech from the ACC; Texas Tech, BYU, and Utah from the Big 12; Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, and Michigan from the Big Ten; and Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, and Texas from the SEC. It would be a stunner to see anyone else outside this group earn a Playoff bid at this point.

Before we get to the eliminator, I also need to apologize. I did the math incorrectly on the ACC tiebreakers last week, and I eliminated Duke improperly. Duke can still reach the ACC Championship Game, so we're removing them from the eliminated list for now. But the Blue Devils need to win the ACC, and they probably also need James Madison to not win the Sun Belt in order to get a Playoff berth.

First, let's give a quick table of the teams still alive in the Playoff race. (Of the two independents and two Pac-12 teams, only Notre Dame is still in contention.)

American

East Carolina, Memphis, Navy, North Texas, South Florida, Temple, Tulane, UTSA

ACC

Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, Pitt, SMU, Virginia

Big Ten

Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon, USC

Big 12

Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Texas Tech, Utah

Conference-USA

Western Kentucky

MAC

None

Mountain West

Fresno State, Hawaii, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV

SEC

Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Sun Belt

James Madison

Remember, I don't predict the outcomes of games here. I have one rule for how I eliminate a team. I ask: Does this team have a chance to reach the Playoff if it wins out? If the answer is maybe or yes, then that team isn't eliminated. If the answer is no, then it makes the list.

In addition to this weekly article, I will be counting down the teams in this thread on X (formerly Twitter). I will also have a second thread detailing which teams (using the same principles) are out of contention for the seven at-large spots.

Week 13 College Football Playoff Eliminator

39 teams entered Week 13 with a chance of making the College Football Playoff if they win out, and one entered as a lock. We eliminated 11 more in Week 12 and locked two more teams into the Playoff, and we added back one team we accidentally falsely eliminated leaving 27 still in contention for the final nine spots.

Ohio State

Guaranteed a spot in the 2025 College Football Playoff

Texas A&M

Guaranteed a spot in the 2025 College Football Playoff

Arizona

Eliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Cincinnati

Eliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

East Carolina

Four losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Fresno State

Four losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Hawaii

Four losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Houston

Eliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Memphis

Eliminated from AAC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Temple

Eliminated from AAC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

USC

Eliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

UTSA

Eliminated from AAC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Western Kentucky

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Previous Weeks

Week 12

Indiana

Guaranteed a spot in the 2025 College Football Playoff

Army

Eliminated from AAC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Baylor

Eliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Boise State

Four losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Cal

Eliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Duke

Eliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Florida Atlantic

Eliminated from AAC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Illinois

Eliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Iowa

Eliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Kansas State

Eliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Kennesaw State

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Louisville

Eliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Minnesota

Eliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Nebraska

Eliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

North Carolina

Eliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

N.C. State

Eliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Southern Miss

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

TCU

Eliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

UCLA

Eliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Utah State

Five losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Virginia Tech

Eliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Wake Forest

Eliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Washington

Eliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Week 11:

Florida

Eliminated from SEC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Kansas

Eliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

LSU

Eliminated from SEC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Missouri

Eliminated from SEC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Northwestern

Eliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Tennessee

Eliminated from SEC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

UAB

Eliminated from AAC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Week 10:

Central Florida

Eliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Clemson

Eliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Iowa State

Eliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Maryland

Eliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Rice

Eliminated from AAC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Stanford

Eliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Troy

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Week 9

Arkansas

Eliminated from SEC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Auburn

Eliminated from SEC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Boston College

Eliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Colorado

Eliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Florida State

Eliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Kentucky

Eliminated from SEC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Louisiana Tech

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Michigan State

Eliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Mississippi State

Eliminated from SEC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Penn State

Eliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Purdue

Eliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Rutgers

Eliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

South Carolina

Eliminated from SEC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Syracuse

Eliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Tulsa

Eliminated from AAC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

West Virginia

Eliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Wisconsin

Eliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid

Week 8:

Appalachian State

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Charlotte

Six losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

New Mexico State

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Oklahoma State

Six losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Old Dominion

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

San Jose State

Five losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Wyoming

Four losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Week 7:

Louisiana-Monroe

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Marshall

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Miami (OH)

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Ohio

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Texas State

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Toledo

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Week 6:

Air Force

Four losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Coastal Carolina

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Colorado State

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Florida International

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Week 5:

Arkansas State

Four losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Bowling Green

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Buffalo

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Georgia Southern

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Jacksonville State

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Northern Illinois

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

South Alabama

Four losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

UTEP

Four losses, not enough resume quality potential to be top-five conference champion

Week 4:

Ball State

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be top-five conference champion

Georgia State

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Kent State

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Liberty

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Louisiana

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Nevada

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Sam Houston

Four losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Washington State

Two bad losses, not eligible for conference champion bid

Week 3:

Central Michigan

Two bad losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Eastern Michigan

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Massachusetts

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be top-five conference champion

Oregon State

Three losses, not eligible for conference champion bid

Western Michigan

Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Week 2:

UConn

Two losses, not in a conference

Middle Tennessee

Two bad losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion

Week 1:

Delaware

Not bowl eligible this season

Missouri State

Not bowl eligible this season

Akron

Not bowl eligible this season

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This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: College Football Playoff eliminator after Week 13 of the 2025 season